Tomato Prices Surge as Farmers Scale Back Production

In Kenya today, the tomato has become more than just a staple food. It is a quiet symbol of the fragile balance between survival and profit, abundance and scarcity. In the markets, Tomatoes are expensive such that consumers flinch at market stalls. Yet beyond the market stalls, farmers face a different reality — battling unpredictable rains, disease, and heavy losses in the hope that a good season might finally come. For many growers, every harvest is a gamble shaped as much by weather and timing as by hard work itself.

For nearly two decades, Simon W. Githua has built his life around tomatoes. What began as a small venture on two acres of land has, at its peak, expanded to fifty acres. But like so many farmers across Kenya, Simon’s journey has been shaped as much by uncertainty as by success. Based in Kimana, Kajiado South Constituency, he has witnessed firsthand how weather, disease, and market forces can make or break a season.

From Driver to Farmer

Simon’s entry into tomato farming was intentional. “I started Tomato farming because I saw a profitable business,” he explains. Before he ever planted a seed, he worked as a driver transporting tomatoes for other farmers to the market and in that process, he recognized an opportunity. Using savings from his wages, he invested in two acres of farmland and began farming in early 2003.  Today, despite a difficult season that that forced him to reduce his cultivation to 22 acres, he remains deeply embedded in the industry.

The Evolution of Tomato Varieties

Like many farmers, Simon learned through trial and error. He began with the Cal-j variety, a local seed, that proved highly susceptible to disease. “Cal-j was a local variety so when the F1 was introduced to us we embraced it and let go of Cal-J,” he says.

The shift to hybrid seeds marked a turning point. Farmers first adopted Assila F1, which performed well initially before becoming vulnerable to the tomato leaf curl virus. The solution arrived in the form of Big Rock F1, a variety that offered both disease resistance and strong market demand. “We have Big Rock F1 and Kewalo,” Simon states.

The Greatest Challenge: Weather

Despite improved seeds and years of experience, Simon is clear about weather being his biggest obstacle. “Whether it is the long rains or drought, it still affects us one way or another.” He explains that weather dictates the entire rhythm of the season and that a good season for the field is a bad one for the wallet. “When the weather is good, everyone has good harvest and tomato is everywhere in the market,” Simon explains. “At such a time, you can harvest 45 to 50 tonnes from just two acres.”

 “The only thing that can fail you is the price or lack of customers. When they are many in the market sometimes there is no one to buy,” he continues, showing that abundant supply leads to price crashes.

Markets and the Gamble of Selling

Farmers like Simon sell through multiple channels. “We sometimes sell them on the farm or take it to Muthurwa Market. There is also a new market in Kampala where we sell our tomatoes.” Direct sales to consumers are common, but he points to a persistent weakness in the system where there is no any form of value of addition to catch the surplus and carry it through the lean months. So it’s like a gamble, if customers come, fine and if they don’t there is nothing you can do.”

The Boom-and-Bust Cycle

The tomato market follows a volatile cycle of gluts and shortages. Simon recalls that from June to November last year, tomatoes were plentiful, creating a market glut that drove prices down. “Currently, tomatoes are expensive,” he says, “but not many people have them because the rains destroyed a lot of crops.” The impact has been severe, “those growing tomatoes are not many because some faced great losses and couldn’t get back up.”

Some farmers, including Simon, have scaled back, “we used to grow 50 acres but this has reduced to 22 acres.” Looking ahead, he predicts, “There is a possibility tomatoes won’t be that much next season.” He observes that farmers in Marura typically plant only once a year, starting in May to harvest in August or September, deliberately avoiding the September rains.

Disease and Pest Management

Tomato farming also faces constant threats from pests and diseases. “Tomatoes are usually attacked by blight, downy mildew, early and late blight, tomato curl virus, and pests, which we control through spraying,” Simon explains.

 Hybrid seed varieties have improved resilience and post-harvest quality. According to Simon, modern varieties can remain fresh for up to ten days after harvesting without spoiling. “Even if you stack five boxes on top of each other, they won’t break,” he says.

Manual Labor and Land Leasing

Despite the scale of production, farming operations remain largely manual. “We do our farming manually,” Simon admits. Storage is less of a concern for him because he has developed a reliable network of buyers over the years, “When we harvest, we already have customers. Some buy in large quantities while others buy smaller amounts. If there is any remaining produce, I drive it to the market myself.”

One structural challenge he highlights is land ownership. “These farms are not ours; we lease them for maybe 3 to 4 years because if you also keep growing tomatoes continuously on the same piece of land, it won’t do well.” Crop rotation therefore forces farmers to constantly seek new plots. Currently, they price tomatoes per box, with each 120kg box selling for between ksh.8000 and 8500.

The Covid Effect and Final Advice

The Covid-19 pandemic brought a surge of new entrants into farming as many Kenyans sought alternative sources of income.  “During the Covid, many people went into farming,” Simon recalls, “but in the next 3 to 4 years they did not do well. That was money wasted.”

 Yet for the few farmers who managed to sustain production through difficult seasons, recent high prices have brought significant returns. “Those who had tomatoes in the last two months have made very good profits,” he says.

 “It all depends on the weather whether you’ll face losses or profit. It is a business, not 100% profit or 100% loss,” he cautions, remaining realistic about nature of business.For anyone considering tomato farming, Simon offers a measured endorsement. “Right now, it is indeed a good business opportunity because of the tomato prices but one should be prepared to gain or lose.”

 After twenty years in the fields of Kimana, Simon knows that success is never guaranteed—but for those who understand the risks, tomatoes can still offer a path forward.